My Daily Advertiser Op Ed column for Tuesday 1 March 2022

Australia’s shambolic defence policy exposed

During the last sitting week of federal parliament Messrs Morrison and Dutton made much of the looming threat of war with China. It was done as an attempt to ‘wedge’ Albanese and the ALP, but was also a jingoistic electioneering call.

This brought to mind the meaning of the word ‘jingo’. It was taken from a popular music-hall song in the UK leading up to the First World War: “We don’t want to fight, but by jingo if we do/We’ve got the ships, we’ve got the men/And we’ve got the money too.”

There’s an irony here of course, for those whipping up jingoistic war drums are seemingly unaware that the bulk of our ships and aircraft are not fit for purpose.

I will begin by looking at the AUKUS announcement last September, which forecast ambitious plans to provide Australia with advanced US and UK defence equipment. The package includes hardware such as sophisticated tanks and missiles, and, of course, the acquisition of nuclear submarines.

When Australia suddenly cancelled the existing French submarine project the Prime Minister angered the French by lying to them about it.

We also alienated a number of Pacific Island states, which believe our submarines will compromise the South Pacific Nuclear-Free Zone.

It may also encourage nuclear proliferation. Asian countries with nuclear power reactors such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan may want their own nuclear-powered boats.

As Richard Broinowski pointed out in Pearls and Irritations “environmentally, the acquisition could be a disaster.” He asks “where in Australia are the submarines to be based? Could their home ports become contaminated? Where do we dispose of their reactors at the end-of-service life?”

The subs will contain highly-enriched, bomb-grade uranium (U-235) and plutonium (Pu-239) that will remain highly toxic for thousands of years. Australia does not have the political will to identify permanent disposal sites for low-level medical nuclear waste, let alone the highly toxic spent fuel from submarine reactor cores.

And of course when Australia will receive the submarines is left totally vague. The shortcomings with existing defence programs tell us we may be waiting a long time, entailing much more expense than we bargained for.

In an article published in the spring 2010 edition of Security Challenges, Fred Bennett, chief of capital procurement in the Defence Department in the 1980s, lists what he calls the seven deadly risks that confound efficient defence procurement. They are novelty, uncertainty, complexity, interdependence, resource limitations, political constraints and the dangers of commercial control.

Some or all of these factors played a part in cost overruns, schedule delays and performance failures that have dogged previous defence procurement projects. The following are among the more egregious examples.

The Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter sold to the RAAF is admitted to be a failure by USAF experts. At an eye-watering $US100 million per plane, it has limited range, low air-to-air combat survivability, and extraordinarily high running costs. Fifth-generation Chinese and Russian fighters outperform it.

Nine UK-designed Hunter-class frigates to be built by BAE Systems at Adelaide’s Osborne Shipyard at a cost of $6 billion have been found at audit to have substantial design faults.

The ADF’s entire fleet of 47 European-designed MRH-90 Taipan helicopters, assembled in Australia and brought into service in 2017, are being retired because of numerous faults. Retirement is a decade earlier than expected. They will be replaced by the latest versions of American Blackhawks.

In the shorter term, cynics may see the ramping up of the Chinese threat and the AUKUS agreement as ephemeral, as laying the groundwork for a ‘khaki’ Australian election in 2022.

Regardless of all the above I am always dismayed by the attention paid to increasing defensive and offensive capabilities by those expressing concern for our security. It would be more useful for the future of humanity if at least as much attention was paid to waging peace. Please don’t tell me that building up our military capabilities will ensure our safety, as it was a similar arms races that lead to two world wars.

Far better to heed the fourth pillar of the Greens philosophy, which is ‘Peace and non-violence’. Its text reads that “Trying to prevent violence with violence itself will not work. The Greens are committed to peaceful and non-violent solutions locally, nationally and internationally”.

My Daily Advertiser Op Ed column for Tuesday 22 February 2022

Government favours Australian Strategic Policy Institute over public service

Recently I have referred to the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison government emasculating the public service as a source of both expertise and information. Instead, it has increasingly been favouring the private sector, to both ‘do stuff’ (e.g. providing RATs) and to provide advice.

One such body has recently attracted my attention, in large part because it provides advice and information to Minister for Defence Peter Dutton’s increasingly hysterical war-mongering as he ramps up fear of a forthcoming war with China. I’m referring to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).

ASPI was established by John Howard’s government in 2001 to provide “policy relevant research and analysis to better inform government decisions and public understand of strategic and defence issues”.

ASPI has the status of a ‘quango’: the government appoints its director, which, with its unusual funding arrangements, makes it anything but an independent “think tank”.

It receives funding from the Australian and US governments, as well as from private sector sources such as the major players in the US armaments business – what is known as the ‘military-industrial complex’.  

As a source of advice, it has the government’s ear. It has direct and privileged access. As Bruce Haigh, a former diplomat, wrote in Pearls and Irritations “On strategic policy formation it has supplanted the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFAT) and Defence”. My point here is that it is therefore part of the government’s strategy of building up the role of privately funded consultants as it diminishes the role of the public service.

Not surprisingly then it advocates greatly increased defence spending.

For the past five years it has been dissembling over China’s intentions in the region and it is a conduit for hard-line US policy towards China.

ASPI has been strident, some might say irrational and unbalanced, in its criticism of China over Taiwan and its alleged treatment of the Uyghurs. It has appeared as if it is trying to outdo its benefactor, the US, in seeking to impress.

Quoted by Alan Macleod in MintPress John Pilger said “ASPI has played a leading role, some would say the leading role, in driving Australia’s mendacious and self-destructive and often absurd China-bashing campaign. The current Coalition government, perhaps the most right-wing and incompetent in Australia’s recent history, has relied upon ASPI to disseminate Washington’s desperate strategic policies.”

It has also pushed the conspiracy theory that the Chinese government was responsible for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, and the subsequent cover-up.

ASPI has given enthusiastic support to AUKUS, conveying the impression it was in at the inception of the idea. AUKUS is probably the most ill-advised arrangement that Australia is seeking to get involved in since allowing the United States to establish Pine Gap.

It has been said that it is more likely a smokescreen for setting up Australia as a forward US military base for confrontation with China. There is discussion on basing a variety of US combat aircraft in the Northern Territory.

Recently Australia purchased the M1A2, a heavy tank unsuited for operations in this region. It is said the purchase is designed to allow the training of Australian crews for deployment with the US in the Middle East and Europe. Australia has scrapped its still operational fleet of helicopters and will replace them with new US choppers. All at great expense, of course.

AUKUS will give the US unprecedented control over our defence forces (the ADF). It will run all operations directed against China. The possibility of miscalculation leading to war are high. Australia could find itself at war without parliament giving permission, given that we go to war without parliamentary approval. This of course is a situation in need of change.

Haigh recently commented in an interview with NetPress that: “ASPI has supplanted the Department of Foreign Affairs in advice to the government. It is feeding straight into the prime minister’s office on matters of foreign policy, particularly as it relates to China. This is part of the militarisation of Australia and the Australian public service.” In short, ASPI is an important player in helping to prepare Australia for war with China. Would DFAT and Defence public servants have given the government different advice? Unfortunately, as both have been gutted of their expertise we’ll never know.

My Daily Advertiser Op Ed column for Tuesday 15 February 2022

Morrison’s government hopes voters will ignore the real threats

I have thought long and hard about Morrison’s Press Club address of two weeks ago. Not because of the media attention on leaked texts from other politicians telling of the PM’s habit of lying, as that issue has been well and truly analysed.

Instead I have been pondering on the wider implications of his speech. They don’t lead to optimistic conclusions, for essentially what Morrison did, as Mike Scrafton pointed out in Pearls and Irritations, was to “infantilise” voters. Scrafton argues that Morrison “believes the voters, cocooned in their cloistered suburbs, are oblivious to the threats that will crush their children’s future prospects”. Let’s see if he’s right, and what the implications are for all of us.

Australians have modest expectations, the PM tells us all. They just want to “run their businesses, own their own home, raise and educate their kids the way they want to do it, save for their retirement”. For these supposedly happy masses “there is no more important vision than having a country where we enable our kids to realise their dreams about what they want for their life”.

Seemingly oblivious to any encroaching dangers, Morrison maintains that Australians ”remain well prepared for the future”. On this he is completely wrong.

For example, the up-coming federal election should be about global warming, increasing wealth inequality, irreversible environmental degradation, widespread species extinction, ever rising house prices, and the seeming inevitable march to war that the PM and Defence Minister are barracking for. And most critically, about the never-ending thirst for economic growth lying behind these threats.

Election campaigns never rise much above budgetary headlines, three-word campaign slogans, pork barrelling, name-calling and personal slurs, and straight-out lies. The electorate and the mainstream media have been conditioned to expect nothing more profound or visionary from their leaders.

This approach to electioneering is undoubtedly based on practices that have worked in the past. However, the long-term crises facing not just Australia but the world demand decisive long-term policy actions.

On the global warming debate it is worth noting that the next parliament will run until 2025. If radical action is not taken to reduce emissions, to transition Australia to a low-carbon economy and adjust settlement patterns and government services to a new, hotter, less predictable and violent environment, then calamity will be on us. These are issues for which electors should see plans being made.

Perhaps more significantly, for the billions of people that rely on environmental services for clean water, food and health, the priority is reversing environmental degradation. Even here we read stories of poisoned rivers and seas, plastics polluting every nook and cranny on the planet, land-clearing destroying human and animal habitats, dirty air killing urban dwellers, and environmentally generated pandemics. Land degradation contributes to species extinction and global warming. Yet at election time we see nothing on these issues.

Now, let’s look at what causes this dystopian future. The phenomenon that drives these crises is economic growth. Some aspects of it are understandable, for everyone who is poor or in an under-developed country quite reasonably wants more. They want to be housed and to have access to food, health and education for their children.

But at the other end of the spectrum are the capitalists, financiers, exploiters and rent seekers. No government is going to force a major redistribution of wealth or put the system that produces jobs and revenue at risk. There is no appetite for it among political elites.

As an Opinion Piece questioned in the DA last week, “Is endless growth a fairy-tale?”. The short answer is ‘yes’. It can be done. There’s no need for totalitarian communism, though a Bernie Sanders’ style socialism would be a good alternative.

But short of that the most pressing need is to find a way to regulate and direct economic activity while maintaining prosperity. Clean, green, ethical, circular and sustainable economic growth must be possible, otherwise global warming, inequality, environmental degradation and species extinction will overwhelm us.

The amazing thing is we all know this. Yet Australian governments can spend hundreds of billions of dollars on armaments, including nuclear-powered submarines, for example. Time is running out and the best way to begin would be to acknowledge and discuss the threats during the election campaign. Voters need to demand the discussion, otherwise it won’t happen.

My Daily Advertiser Op Ed column for Tuesday 8 February 2022

Long term failures of the Morrison government

Last week I wrote of the ineptitude displayed by the Morrison government over its failure to deal with COVID19. This week I will focus on its long-term failures. Very important issues have been either missed, ignored or ‘kicked down the road’.

It’s a long list. No doubt as the election approaches the PM will borrow from the John Howard playbook by throwing ‘cash splashes’ at some of them. Indeed, he’s already started, with the Great Barrier Reef and Aged Care. Though superficially they may look impressive they will do nothing to fix the issues.

Climate change needs urgent attention. The challenge is to put in place policies to ensure the transition to a low-carbon Australia by 2030 and a no carbon-one by 2050. The Morrison government is failing miserably on both counts, and Labor is hardly any better. The Australian Greens plan of a 75% reduction in emissions by 2030 is the only serious solution put forward by any political party. 

Another issue is the failure to give effective recognition to the First Nations Peoples, and to effectively address their disadvantage. Indigenous communities produced a framework, based on a detailed national consultative process, for a way forward in the Uluru Statement from the Heart. It is yet to receive appropriate consideration and response from government.

The other major policy challenge that has had now lingered without response is refugee policy. The failings of governments of both persuasions, beyond the creeping inhumanity of offshore and onshore detention, has been the inability to develop an effective refugee resettlement policy, to offer these otherwise desperate people some hope of a path forward. The larger question is of course to deal humanely with asylum seekers as they arrive.

COVID19 isn’t only an immediate problem, for as John Hewson pointed out in The Saturday Paper the Omicron variant “won’t be the last or even the most challenging” manifestation of the pandemic. As a solution the Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS) has issued a call to establish a COVID9 rapid response group, which will include unions and peak business groups as well as public health experts.

The pandemic has also raised the issue of mental health and the need for an effective national mental health strategy, including suicide prevention, particularly for our veterans and our youth.

Similarly, there is an urgent need to develop a national strategy on violence against women. After the intensity of public debate in the past year, importantly through the sustained efforts of Grace Tame and others, this is an obvious priority.

Another major issue that has come to a head in the course of the pandemic is aged care. It has been festering since the Howard government’s Aged Care Act 1997. The impact of this, and the terrible neglect it has caused, was documented by the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety.

A similar challenge exists in relation to disability care. There are warning signs that the National Disability Insurance Scheme is in trouble. It has become a massive and expensive bureaucracy, losing its sensitivity to the genuine needs of people with disabilities.

Defence is another important area in urgent need of review. It is a portfolio that has never been subjected to the same scrutiny and accountability as other portfolios. Most noticeably, Defence procurement processes have seen an absence of adequate transparency and accountability.

A specific Defence issue is the outstanding Brereton report, which highlighted a culture of secrecy, fabrication and deceit in relation to our SAS deployment to Afghanistan. The report recommended that 19 soldiers be investigated by police for the murder of 39 prisoners and civilians. Although a strategy to handle the formal response was established, nothing has since been heard.

There is also a pressing imperative for political reform to clean up politics. These include campaign funding, lobbying, truth in political advertising, parliamentary workplace behaviour, especially in relation to the treatment of women, and the formation of an effective, properly funded independent integrity and anti-corruption commission.

In the immediate short-term beware of a whole bunch of ‘cash splashes’ that Morrison will announce with the intention of fooling enough of the people to get him over the line come the next federal election.

---